When I worked at AIG, I did a good deal of business in Sweden with both banks and corporates. In 1991, I was even part of a team that tried to provide capital relief to the Swedish banking system. To no one’s surprise, the banks declined our offer, preferring what our Stockholm rep described as a more “typically Swedish solution.“
What that solution was I never found out, but what I did discover was the Swedish propensity for going it alone in a crisis.
And that’s exactly what Sweden has done with COVID, electing to keep both its economy and society as open as possible while letting the virus “burn itself out.”
Here’s how that’s gone to date:
The chart below doesn’t list the countries that have done better than Sweden but those that haven’t are both numerous and notable. Sweden’s rank in deaths per 100K is currently 40th.
There have been two Swedish mortality spikes since the pandemic started, the second less severe than the first. Current mortality rates are at baseline level.
No country has been more aggressive in its use of masks, lockdowns and vaccines as a way of mitigating the virus’s effects than Israel. It’s, in effect, Sweden’s polar opposite. How do the two countries currently stand vis a vis their respective approaches to the virus?
Surprisingly, Sweden is now reporting only 90 cases per million vs. Israel’s 1,218.
And in terms of its two closest neighbors, Sweden’s new caseload is on par with Finland’s while only half as much as Norway’s.
At the same time, mortality rates for all three countries are comparable.
And, finally, Sweden’s death toll over the last 15 months is almost identical to Germany’s except that it’s slightly LOWER.
The question is, given these DATA POINTS, is Sweden any worse off for having taken the approach it has? To be fair, Swedish authorities are trying to increase the number of fully vaccinated Swedes as the current percentage is low by first-world standards. And Swedes seem willing to comply.
But will it make a difference? While I’M ALL IN FAVOR OF MASKS, VACCINES, VACCINE PASSPORTS FOR TRAVEL, PROOF OF VACCINATION FOR INDOOR DINING AND, IF NECESSARY, LOCKDOWNS, how effective will they prove to have been once we complete the “after-action” on this virus, assuming we ever control it?
Are the measures we’ve taken as effective as we’d like to believe, or are they merely totemic — and would-be prophylactic — and meant to reassure us in ways that aren’t possible? In other words, is this virus something we can materially control, or does it rise and fall on waves we can’t tame?
Since the “typically Swedish solution” looks to have been at least as successful as more proactive approaches taken elsewhere, the truth may lie somewhere in between. One thing is certain. A new wave is coming, regardless. We’ll see which countries it threatens the most.
Tudor Place 