Category: Uncategorized

Without Russian Gas, Germany Could Collapse

And that’s BASF’s CEO, Martin Brudermuller, talking.

And from Bloomberg:

Brudermuller has “warned . . . that many Germans are currently greatly underestimating the consequences of what Russia shutting off the taps would mean . . . nothing less than a historic crisis:

  • “‘Many have misconceptions.  I notice that in many of the conversations I have.  People often make no connection at all between a boycott and their own job. As if our economy and our prosperity were set in stone.'”

And finally, Brudermuller has cautioned that while

  • “Germany could be independent from Russia gas in four to five years“ it remains that “LNG imports cannot be increased quickly enough to replace all Russian gas flows in the short term.”

I HOPE THAT’S NOT PUTTING TOO FINE A POINT ON IT!

You Sanction What You Can . . .

. . . but You Don’t Sanction What You Can’t Do Without.

Without Russian Platinum and Palladium, auto and chip industries would STUMBLE BIG TIME.

From the LBMA and LPPM:

“Due to the terrible events taking place in Ukraine, the LPPM has reviewed its Good Delivery list and the US, EU and UK sanctions. Following that review it has decided to make no changes to the Good Delivery list.

“We will however continue to monitor and review the situation.”

IN OTHER WORDS, RUSSIA IS STILL A GOOD CORPORATE CITIZEN WHEN IT COMES TO CERTAIN KINDS OF BUSINESS.

WAR OR NOT, TRADE HAS A MIND OF ITS OWN.

From Cycles to Waves

The need for BALANCE may be MORE or LESS IMMEDIATE.

From Michael Every at Rabobank:

CATALYSTS OF MAJOR ECONOMIC CYCLES

On the other hand . . .

“‘Political risk’ can be seen as waxing and waning in a wave pattern –not a cycle: there is no fixed periodicity or amplitude– along fundamental channels set by geography, demography, and political-economy. That is, until it breaks to the topside or down-side. As such, yes, you can make money tactically within the bands of a ‘wave’; but you should always consider which way the channel is ultimately trending.”

ARE YOU A LONG-GAMER, OR WILL YOU RISK IT FOR THE BISCUIT?

 

Rickards’ View of the Russian-Ukraine War

And it’s far from the MSM’s take.

From Jim Rickards via DailyReckoning.com

  • “The Russian-Ukraine kinetic war and the broader U.S.-Russian economic war are full of more lies than any public events I’ve seen in my lifetime including Vietnam, Watergate and the Iraq War.”
  • “Here’s the real story: Russia’s invasion is the end result of 14 years of provocation by the West, including repeated declarations that Ukraine will join NATO and a U.S.-backed coup d’état in 2014 that displaced a pro-Russian president.”
  • “Zelensky is no Churchill.  He’s succeeded in presenting himself as a strong wartime leader, standing up to the big, bad Putin. But in reality, he’s a corrupt oligarch with millions of dollars hidden offshore.”
  • “Innocent civilians, including women and children, are dying under his failed leadership and inability to come to terms with Putin before the invasion began. In a nutshell, Zelensky bet on support from Biden and the West and lost.”
  • “Economic sanctions of these kinds sound powerful when they’re announced and do have some impact. But in the long run they never work. In the end, the costs are real but the effects of the sanctions are nil. It’s a lose-lose proposition.”
  • “We’re actually doing Putin a favor by clipping the oligarchs’ wings. Putin’s power comes from the military and security services, not the oligarchs.”
  • “Oil and natural gas are paid for in dollars. In a masterpiece of judo, Putin is now demanding that Russian oil and natural gas bought by states imposing sanctions be paid for in rubles. This mystified many. If Russia needs dollars (they do), why be paid in rubles?”
  • “Putin thinks many moves ahead on the chessboard while Biden is playing pin the tail on the donkey, blindfolded.”
  • “U.S. consumers and investors will suffer as prices soar, growth lags and stocks collapse.”
  • “In the end, Putin will prevail in Ukraine, while the Ukrainian people and Western consumers will pay the heaviest price.

IS HE RIGHT?

My sense is — MORE SO THAN NOT.

The entire piece:

Rickards: I’ve Never Heard So Many Lies

Sharp Pivot at Canary Wharf

From Zero Hedge:

“As East London’s famed Canary Wharf financial district struggles to rebound from the COVID pandemic that inspired the ‘work-from-home revolution’ (leaving many of the district’s skyscrapers disappointingly vacant) the local landlord, Canary Wharf Group, has devised a ‘novel’ solution.”

More:

“And that plan is: develop a 22-storey, 750,000 square foot block split between ‘wet labs’ and office space.  The landlord hopes this new setup will ultimately provide the anchor for a thriving life-sciences cluster in East London (where the entire local economy has started to collapse due to a shortage of office workers to patronize local shops and other business). The project is expected to cost roughly $660 million.”

And from the FT:

“The company is partnering with Kadans Science Partner, a specialist Dutch developer, on the project, which is expected to cost at least £500mn to build according to people with knowledge of the matter.

“The project, due to complete in 2026, is a key part of CWG chief executive Shobi Khan’s vision to transform the area and attract a wider array of tenants. The Wharf had changed from ‘what the old guard knew it as’, said Khan.

“The financial district envisaged 30 years ago as a rival to the City of London was giving way to a mixed use neighbourhood with more leisure activities and homes, he added.”

GOT THAT, ERIC ADAMS AND NYC COUNCIL MEMBERS?  DON’T LET CHICAGO, ATLANTA OR BOSTON ETAL BEAT YOU TO THE PUNCH.

MANHATTAN SKYSCRAPERS NEED FILLING WITH BUSINESS OPERATIONS OF EVERY DESCRIPTION WHERE WORKERS MUST WORK ON SITE.  OTHERWISE, THE SMALL BUSINESS/RETAIL SECTOR AND, ULTIMATELY, ALL THINGS MANHATTAN REAL ESTATE ARE TOAST.

It Takes Two . . .

. . . to Tango OR to FIGHT A PROXY WAR.

In the interest of OBJECTIVITY — assuming it can EVER be achieved — here’ s Putin’s RATIONALE for what he’s doing:

And from Rick Sterling via AntiWar.com:

“Since 2008, when NATO ‘welcomed’ the membership aspirations of Ukraine and Georgia, Russia has said this would cross a red line and threaten its security. In recent years NATO has provided advisers, training and ever increasing amounts of military hardware. While Ukraine is not a formal member of NATO, it has increasingly been treated like one. The full Rand report says ‘While NATO’s requirement for unanimity makes it unlikely that Ukraine could gain membership in the foreseeable future, Washington’s pushing this possibility could boost Ukrainian resolve while leading Russia to redouble its efforts to forestall such a development.’“

Correct.  We’re still trying to control Russia and encircle as best we can China.  It’s the MAIN MISSION of our GLOBABL GRAND STRATEGY.

Russia knows it and so does China.

But then, US POWER NEVER SLEEPS.

See Noam Chomsky.

A Common Enemy . . .

. . . will make allies of STRANGE BEDFELLOWS.

Above: Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, left, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Israel’s Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Morocco’s Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita, and United Arab Emirates’ Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Behold “Our World,” Folks . . .

. . . THE ONE IN YELLOW IN MAP TWO.

And if Europe can’t replace Russia as an energy source, it, too, will be INCORPORATED — at least economically — into the GREATER EURASIA PROJECT China and Russia are directing.

THAT WOULD LEAVE AS OUR WORLD ONLY THE ANGLOSPHERE WHICH IS WHY I’VE BEEN PROMOTING IT AND NOT BECAUSE I’M SOME KIND OF RACIST.

In the end, the only countries we’ll be able to trust are the NON-COLLECTIVIST MINDED ANGLO-SAXON ZONE INHERITOR-PRACTICIONERS OF ENGLISH COMMON LAW. 

What these countries still prize most are FREEDOM and the RIGHT TO TRADE.