Unintended Consequences

This is from Jim Rickards — geopolitical lawyer, gold expert, CIA consultant.

The Last Straw

I won’t bother to parse, reframe or critique this one as it should come straight from the horse’s mouth.

What it describes is how the US’s USE OF SANCTIONS against Russia will not only severely impair the global economy but could also wind up allowing China and Russia to JUJITSU their way out from under the US Dollar and into potential global currency preeminence via a DIGITAL, GOLD-BACKED YUAN.

To understand how this would play out, I can’t recommend enough your reading this article.

Russia and Natural Resources

From Bloomberg:

These charts show just how the Ukrainian conflict and Western sanctions on Russia are choking the world’s supply of natural resources, driving up prices.” 

HIGHEST COMMODITY PRICES SINCE THE 70’s.  IN FACT, HIGHER.

SOME HEFTY EXPORT NUMBERS OF CRITICAL COMMODITIES

HOW CRITICAL IS CRUDE? EXTREMELY.

CRUDE-THIRSTY CHINA AND EUROPE

KEY PLAYER IN GASOIL AND DIESEL . . .

. . . AND ALMOST ALL OF IT GOES TO EUROPE.

NUMBER ONE PIPELINE GAS EXPORTER . . .

. . . WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT GOING TO EUROPE

MAJOR PLAYER IN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS

LARGEST RUSSIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTERS

COUNTRIES DEPENDENT ON RUSSIAN WHEAT

MAJOR RUSSIAN SUNFLOWER OIL CONSUMERS

RUSSIA’S KEY ROLE IN FERTILIZER EXPORTS

RUSSIAN FERTILIZER PURCHASERS

MAJOR RUSSIAN NICKEL IMPORTERS

RELIANCE ON RUSSIAN ALUMINUM

THIRD LARGEST PRODUCER OF PALLADIUM AND PLATINUM

US/UK DEPENDENCE ON RUSSIAN PALLADIUM

THIRD LARGEST STEEL EXPORTER

WHAT DO THESE CHARTS TELL US?

  1. Russia is more than just a “gas station with nukes.” It’s a KEY GLOBAL COMMODITIES EXPORTER.
  2. If Russia ceases exporting, GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES WILL RISE EVEN MORE.
  3. Europe’s dependence on Russian commodity exports is so extensive, THERE’S NO WAY EUROPE CAN FIND ENOUGH REPLACEMENT IMPORTS TO MAINTAIN ANYTHING APPROACHING A NORMAL GROWTH RATE.
  4. Yet, without export revenues, RUSSIA’S ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE.

So, can either side afford to PLAY CHICKEN?  I say NO, which is why I DON’T BELIEVE THIS WAR CAN LAST.

Behold the Left’s Hypocrisy

Yes, yes, we all know about Fox and the NONSENSE THEY PURVEY, but the extreme LEFT is now infecting the INTEGRITY of the CENTER-LEANING LEFT.

Check out the Nazi-hating Jew, Wokal Distance; the traditionally liberal James Lindsay (is anyone HALF as smart as this guy?) and whatever Benjamin Boyce is besides level headed — call out the Left for its FLAGRANT HYPOCRISY.

Or, God forbid, STUPEFYING, BUBBLE-WRAPPED IGNORANCE.

And I mean YOU, Michelle Obama and AOC. 

Still think ANTIFA is a MYTH?

Four Square

Once

There was always that
First encounter:

My face in the mirror,
Still hostage to sleep,
My eyes looking distant
And hurt.
The razor's swift passage
Through aerosol soap,
My cheeks newly smooth
To the touch.

Did I feel like that
Chap in Ulysses?

The walk to the subway
From where I then lived --
Or often some woman's
Apartment --
Seldom succeeded
In shifting my thoughts
To the humdrum of
Income deferred.

Would I ever find action
In that?

Did I swagger with purpose
Or merely conceit?
Was meaning just mood
In disguise?
Was mission the issue
Or just an excuse,
A pretext for
Drawing my pay?

How I loved when that
Envelope came.

I'd mastered the basics
Then failed to engage,
Preferring to pass
Or retreat,
A clever convincer
With searing contempt
And a slave to the
Whims of the night.

JAD, 2022
A Sense

Ripples of memory
That radiate out
Into widening circles
Of waves
Germinate swaddled
In dreams.
Why is the past so 
Persistently here
If also so hopelessly
Lost?
Yeats had an inkling
Chagall may have glimpsed,
A sense the eternal
Is near.

JAD, 2022
Opportunism

I notice you're playing
With words again,
Attempting to
Hustle your point.
Is the word, opportunist,
What needs to be pruned
Or perhaps the discreet
Opportunist?
The difference is telling to
Those you've deceived.
They know the word's meaning
And you.

JAD, 2022
What World?

Awakened Manhattan,
Recalling its strengths,
Is taking those
Deepening breaths.
The traffic is denser;
The pavements, recharged;
The energy, ready
To surge.
Yet, what world is coming,
Which dimly foreseen,
Will sabotage much
We hold dear. 

JAD, 2022