I would love to say as Bill Maher sometimes does when introducing certain guests, that Ian Bremmer works at “my old job.”  But, like Bill Maher, I can’t.  Still, judging from this interview, it’s good that it’s Bremmer doing it.

Some terrific analysis here.

But then just for giggles, here’s my analysis of Bremer’s:

I. A POST-POST-COLD WAR WORLD

• What’s happening in Ukraine is the most important geopolitical event since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
• It marks nothing less that the end of THE PEACE DIVIDEND which followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and which led to accelerating globalization and the rise of a global middle class.
• Europe must now PRIORITIZE DEFENSE, NATIONAL SECURITY AND NATO.

TUDOR PLACE:  And this is, as NOAM CHOMSKY HAS POINTED OUT, exactly what the US wants — an ARMED AND READY EUROPE TAKING ORDERS VS. ONE MORE ECONOMICALLY INTEGRATED INTO EURASIA.

The WAR-DRIVEN US ECONOMY needs both a) an enemy and b) as much counterweight support as possible in the face of Chinese and Russian assertiveness.

II. RUSSIA

• Putin will emerge from this war RADICALLY WEAKENED.
• So will Russia — both ECONOMICALLY AND SECURITY-WISE.
• The West will DECOUPLE from Russia — and vice-versa — while Putin remains in power.
• This will include few US based companies in Russia; ramped up European defenses; and greater European efforts to replace Russian sourced energy inputs.
• Russia will become heavily ECONOMICALLY RELIANT ON CHINA — even to the point of becoming a supplicant.
• Relations with the other two major BRICS, Brazil and India, should for the most part remain intact.

TUDOR PLACE:  The two key questions here are a) WILL RUSSIA BE ABLE TO PIVOT ECONOMICALLY TOWARD CHINA IN A WAY THAT’S SUSTAINABLE and b) HOW WILL EUROPE REPLACE RUSSIAN HYDROCARBON IMPORTS UPON WHICH IT’S MASSIVELY DEPENDENT.

III. POTENTIAL SILVER LININGS

• A PURPOSEFUL, ALIGNED NATO
• An improved EU/UK relationship
• A China, WITH NO APPETITE FOR A SECOND COLD WAR, resistant to further global decoupling

TUDOR PLACE:  THE IRONY HERE IS THAT NEITHER CHINA NOR THE WEST IS LOOKING TO DECOUPLE.  Yet, each side wants “globalization” ONLY ON ITS OWN TERMS.  The US still sees it as the means of “ENCIRCLING” EURASIA, while CHINA NEEDS THE WORLD’S MARKETS TO AT LEAST ACHIEVE PARITY WITH THE US IF NOT OUTRIGHT ADVANTAGE. 

In this regard, Russia with its more NAKEDLY POLTICIAL AMBITIONS, is the proverbial FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  The question then becomes — HOW DOES THE REST OF THE WORLD MANAGE RUSSIA?  In other words, WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO CALM RUSSIA DOWN?

IV. NEGOTIATION PROSPECTS

• Humanitarian corridors have been set up.
• But as Putin is “hell-bent” on taking Kiev, broader negotiations don’t currently appear likely.
• IF PUTIN DOESN’T TAKE UKRAINE IN A FEW WEEKS AND REMOVE ZELENSKY, HE WILL BE VIEWED IN RUSSIA AS HAVING STUMBLED.

TUDOR PLACE:  I don’t see Putin pulling out.  And if he negotiates, he won’t show much flexibility.  He’s will push this thing TO THE LIMIT.

V. PROSPECTS OF RUSSIA ATTACKING THE WEST

• RUSSIA SEES ARMS SUPPORT AND INTELLIGENCE ASSISTANCE AS ACTS OF WAR.
• In other words, RUSSIA DOESN’T CONSIDER MEASURES SHORT OF DIRECT MILITARY ENGAGEMENT AS MERELY “PROXY WAR.”
• CYBERATTACKS AGAINST NATO COUNTRIES SHOULD START SOON.
• RUSSIA MAY ALSO LAUNCH TERRORIST STRIKES AGAINST FRONTLINE NATO COUNTRIES.

TUDOR PLACE:  This is the dimension most perilous and uncertain. 

Despite the Soviet Union’s having equipped both North Korea during the Korean War and North Vietnam during the Vietnam War — but then, later, never challenging the US as it trained and equipped insurgent combatants during Russia’s unsuccessful war in Afghanistan — Putin now claims that material aid of any kind from any non-combatant nation constitutes an ACT OF WAR.

According to such logic, Russia then has the right to respond with ITS OWN ACTS OF WAR.  Will it?  No one knows.  My question is — WHAT’S DRIVING RUSSIA?  IS IT DETERMINATION OR DESPERATION?  If we can find out the answer to THAT QUESTION, we should have a better idea as to how strongly it will react to Western assistance to Ukraine.

VI. ENERGY IN LIGHT OF DECOUPLING

• Russia is forcing the West to PRIORITIZE POLITICS OVER ECONOMICS EVEN THOUGH THIS IS ON ONE LEVEL A WAR OVER ENERGY.
  
• Germany now sees NORDSTREAM AS A MISTAKE while the EU MUST DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM RUSSIAN HYDROCARBONS PLUS STEP UP THE PACE ON RENEWABLES.
• France, powered predominantly by nuclear, is feeling less pressure, and may align with China in an effort to ENGAGE AT SOME POINT IN DIRECT DIPLOMACY WITH RUSSIA.
• THIS COULD UNDERMINE EU/NATO UNITY.
• Yet, SANCTIONS WON’T CHANGE PUTIN’S MILITARY CALCULUS OR DECISION MAKING.
• AS FOR THE US, IT COULD DISENGAGE FROM THE ENTIRE DIPLOMATIC PROCESS, TURNING BACK ITS ATTENTION TO INTERNICINE PARTISAN POLITICS.

TUDOR PLACE:  The question here is HOW PURELY POLITICAL CAN EUROPE ALLOW THIS TO GET?  THERE IS NO WAY THAT IT CAN QUICKLY AND EFFICIENTLY REPLACE RUSSIAN-SOURCED HYDROCARBONS.  It will make it through this winter, but DOES ANYONE EXPECT THAT ALTERNATIVE ENERGY AND POWER SOURCES SUFFICIENT TO KEEP EUROPE FROM PLUNGING INTO A DEEP RECESSION WILL BE AVAILABLE AND ONSTREAM BY NEXT WINTER?

DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH.

VII. GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY

• That the world’s leading grain exporter has invaded the 5th leading grain producer is POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC.
• When commodities spike, and there are supply chain challenges, A LOT MORE PEOPLE DIE.
• SMALLER ECONOMIES WILL FEEL THE IMPACT OF THIS WAR FAR MORE THAN LARGER ONES.
• Yet, KNOCK-ON EFFECTS WILL REACH EVERYONE.
• Food insecurity will play a role in UNWINDING GROWTH WHICH, IN TURN, WILL LEAD TO NEW FINANCIAL CRISES, e.g. Turkey’s debt and/or more Lebanon’s.
• Set against the recent “explosive development” of a global middle class, a) THE PANDEMIC, b) THIS WAR AND c) RUSSIA’S SUBSEQUENT DECOUPLING WILL NOW SERIOUSLY RETARD — OR WORSE — REVERSE ECONOMIC GROWTH.

TUDOR PLACE:  Simply put, HOW MANY ARAB SPRINGS CAN YOU FIT INTO ONE YEAR?  What we’re looking at here are levels of FUNDAMENTAL UNREST NOT SEEN IN TWO OR THREE DECADES.  And though the effects won’t be equal, THEY’LL BE ALL-PERVASIVE.

VIII. CLIMATE

• IN EUROPE, THE PUSH TOWARDS GREEN WILL ACCELERATE WHILE IN THE US IT WILL SLOW.
• CHINA WILL CONTINUE ON A NET-ZERO PATH BUT WITH LITTLE URGENCY AND NO PLAN GIVEN THE US’S INABILITY TO FORMULATE ONE EITHER.
• While green energy continues to get cheaper, THAT THE US IS ALREADY TALKING TO VENEZUELA, THE SAUDIS AND THE EMIRATES ABOUT RAMPING UP PRODUCTION IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT CONTINUING HEAVY PETROLEUM USAGE LIES AHEAD.
• NET-NET, THE US CAN’T TRANSITION AWAY FROM HYDROCARBONS AS QUICKLY AS SOME HAD HOPED.

TUDOR PLACE:  In other words, the GREEN FANTASY has met with a serious DOSE OF REALITY. Had it not come as a result of this war, it would have arrived by dint of ENERGY MATH and A LOT SOONER THAN LATER.  As it is, IT MAY SERVE IN THE NEAR TERM AS A BENEFIT.  THE SOONER WE ABANDON THIS PREMATURE NO-CARBON NONSENSE, THE SOONER WE’LL BE ABLE TO START ADDRESSING THE CLIMATE ISSUE IN A SERIOUS, PRAGMATIC WAY.

Enough GREEN UTOPIA already.

IX. CHINA

• China has been surprised by WHAT A RED LINE UKRAINE REPRESENTS FOR THE WEST.
• China also sees that MUCH OF THE WORLD IS NOT WITH NATO.  Censuring fine, BUT NO EMBARGOES.
• XI, who’s called Putin China’s BEST FRIEND, knew the invasion was coming.
• Logically, China’s media has been RELENTLESSLY PRO-RUSSIAN in the aftermath.
• At the same time, China is AFFECTING A KIND OF NEUTRALITY and doesn’t wish to be seen as THAT CLOSE to Russia.
• China projects power economically and technologically while Russia projects power militarily.
• As China sees it, DECOUPLING WAS ALREADY OCCURING and its investor class is already looking to REPLACE THE WEST in as many Russian economic sectors as possible.

TUDOR PLACE:  China is out for China, FULL STOP.  Whatever means it will take China to achieve its aims, IT WILL, NO DOUBT, CONSIDER.  And if that means a closer embrace with Russia, so be it.  But as ever, China will try to BEND THE RELATIONSHIP TO CHINA’S MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE.  To China, LOYALTY IS A FUNCTION OF PRACTICALITY.

X. PUTIN

• Given the war’s pressure, he’s SHUT DOWN ALL INDEPENDENT MEDIA.
• At the same time, MANY OF THE PROTESTORS ARRESTED HAVE BEEN RELEASED.
• BUT IF THE ECONOMY TANKS, THE PRESSURE WILL TICK UP.
• As presented to the West, UKRAINIANS ARE WINNING THE INFORMATION WAR.
• YET, AS RUSSIANS ARE RECEIVING A COMPLETELY PRO-PUTIN VIEW OF THE WAR, IT’S UNLIKELY THAT PUTIN WILL BE IMMINENTLY REMOVED.
• Once Zelensky has been removed, FURTHER RUSSIAN ATTACKS MAY NOT BE NEEDED.
• And if Ukrainian resistance can be contained, PUTIN MAY OPT FOR A “FROZEN CONFLICT.“
• This would be nothing new for Russia which has lived with FROZEN CONFLICTS on its borders FOR YEARS.
• In other words, A CEASE-FIRE WILL NOT NECESSARILY LEAD TO A RESOLUTION.

TUDOR PLACE:  Putin’s fate as well as Russia’s will LIKELY DEPEND ON THE CONTINUING LEVEL OF UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE COUNTRY TECHNICALLY FALLS OR NOT. 

Might Ukrainians, if necessary, mount a LONG-TERM IRAQ-STYLE INSURGENCY?   If so, what measures might Putin take to PREVENT AND/OR CRUSH IT?  Might Russia resort to ETHNIC CLEANSING OR EVEN OUTRIGHT GENOCIDE?  And if so, HOW MIGHT THE WEST RESPOND? 

But without answers to each of those questions, THERE’S NO WAY TO PROGNOSTICATE HOW PUTIN GETS THROUGH THIS.

XI. THE NUCLEAR QUESTION

• Putin has been rattling his NUCLEAR SABER, so it’s something THAT CAN’T BE IGNORED.
• A Cuban Missile type crisis could definitely occur.
• Yet, DE-CONFLICTION MEASURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TAKEN BY BOTH RUSSIA AND THE US.
• There’s also the NUCLEAR POWER PLANT THREAT.
• Nor are BIOLOGICAL AND/OR CHEMICAL WEAPONS OFF LIMITS.
• So, there’s once again ACTIVE MANAGEMENT.

XII. OTHER COUNTRIES

• India, despite its poor relations with China, will continue to PLAY BALL WITH RUSSIA.
• Japan, with its new hawkish PM, remains FIRMLY WITH THE WEST.  It’s even taking in UKRAINIAN REFUGEES — something almost unheard of.
• South Korea:  DITTO JAPAN.
• Africa/Latin America will not be forced to pick sides.  COMMODITY EXPORTERS WILL BOOM.

XIII. SANCTIONS AND THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM

• AS LONG AS UKRAINE IS OCCUPIED AND PUTIN IN POWER, SANCTIONS WILL REMAIN.
• It’s a new environment.  Sanctions are FUNCTIONALLY PERMANENT.
• If sanctions persist, there’s a STRONG CHANCE that the global economic/financial system will SPLIT INTO EASTERN AND WESTERN HALVES.
• As China is still the world’s FASTEST GROWING MARKET, Western Corporates DON’T WISH TO SEE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DECPOUPLING.  And this despite the desire in the US for MORE INSOURCING.
• China is also fearful of more LONG-TERM DECOUPLING.  It can’t build for the world IF IT CAN’T SELL TO IT.

XIV. ZELENSKY

• Courageous
• Inexperienced

TUDOR PLACE:  No argument. The guy has guts and PLENTY OF RESOLVE, but, no question, he’s made some MISTAKES.  Bottom line though, Ukrainians are lucky to possess such a LEADER and he, SUCH COMMITTED AND VALOROUS PEOPLE.  It’s no less than a STUNNING EXAMPLE.  Particularly, in today’s SOFT world.

WATCH — IF YOU CAN — THE ENTIRE INTERVIEW.  BREMMER IS BOTH BRILLIANT AND PRECISELY INFORMED.  THERE’S MUCH HE CAN TELL I FAILED TO INCLUDE.

From Yahoo:

“Former Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department official, and now Credit Suisse (CS) short-term rate strategist, Zoltan Pozsar has written the U.S. is in a commodity crisis that is giving rise to a new world monetary order that will ultimately weaken the current dollar-based system and lead to higher inflation in the West.”

The rest of it:

Credit Suisse Strategist Says We’re Witnessing the Birth of a New World Monetary Order

Stay tuned to this as it’s likely to prove not only PIVOTAL but also EPOCHAL.

. . . and Related Entities

I see no enlargement including Ukraine.  Assuming there STILL IS a Ukraine.

. . . “But Russia has not stood still. The Central Bank of Russia imposed capital controls so that Russian companies cannot pay interest or principal on international debts. That means those loans and bonds may soon go into default.

“Many such securities may be stuffed into 401(k) plans of Americans under the umbrella of ’emerging markets’ funds or ETFs. Even more important is the possibility that interbank lending may start to dry up as Russian banks are frozen and Western banks reduce leverage and shrink balance sheets in order to reduce risk.

“This will lead to defaults in the West and could even mark the beginning of a global liquidity crisis that can only be contained by Federal Reserve currency swap lines, like we saw in the early stages of the pandemic when markets were collapsing.

“But even that technique may not work since there are no swap arrangements in place between the Fed and the Central Bank of Russia. The shooting war may or may not be over soon, but the financial war has just started and will continue after the shooting stops.

AND THERE’S MORE:

Putin’s Options

This is how GEFIRA, which stands for Global Analysis from the European Perspective, sees the post-Russian-Ukrainian War world:

“The current war means the end of the world that we have been accustomed to. We are entering a new cold war period and a new division of the globe with the United States, Great Britain, and the European Union on the one side, and Russia and China on the other. This new world throws a monkey wrench into the plans forged by globalists of the Klaus Schwab ilk. Or, globalism will be reduced to the Western world. The international rules that all the countries have up to now tried to abide by are no more valid for Russia, and consequently sooner or later for others because of the domino effect. Being beleaguered by the West, Moscow will have no intention to play by the rules created in this West. Why should it?”

So then, where’s Tom Friedman?

What he TOTALLY MISSED during his PIE-IN-THE-SKY GLOBALIZATION VICTORY LAP was that the entire system depended on a) everyone playing their part and b) the US NOT overplaying its hand.

Because, once the US tripped up and/or was not seen as wearing the Emperor’s Clothes, the rest of the fabric WOULD UNRAVEL.

The whole thing has been DAVOS-INSPIRED and US-DIRECTED.  Still, someone — say, China for starters — was always going to TAKE THEIR BALL AND GO HOME.

In the event, it will be Russia going home first.

As for what comes next?

My bet is that it will be a LOT LESS TO THE US’S LIKING.

Here’s the piece I extracted the above quote from.  And, CLEARLY, it’s anti-US.

Much Wants More and Loses All

The Pariah Club

Short clip from about two weeks ago.

Chomsky argues that if Minsk 2 were implemented, further hostilities could be prevented.  But it won’t happen, he asserts, as the US wishes to stay in a STATE OF CONFRONTATION with Russia and knows JUST WHAT BUTTONS TO PUSH to ensure that.

This in no way exonerates Putin.  But it does ELUCIDATE THE POWER STRUGGLE at the heart of what’s happening.

Here’s the clip:

Hoover Institute scholar, Niall Ferguson, boils it down to 7 questions:

1. Do the Russians manage to take Kyiv in a matter of two, three, four weeks or never?

2. Do the sanctions precipitate such a severe economic contraction in Russia that Putin cannot achieve victory?

3. Does the combination of military and economic crisis precipitate a palace coup against Putin?

4. Does the risk of downfall lead Putin to desperate measures (carrying out his nuclear threat)? 

5. Do the Chinese keep Putin afloat but on the condition that he agrees to a compromise peace that they offer to broker?

6. Does the West’s attention deficit disorder kick in before any of this?

7. What is the collateral damage?

Ferguson’s summation:

“Add these seven imponderables together and you see how profoundly important the next few weeks will be. This is the first big crisis of Cold War II, which is in many ways like a mirror image of Cold War I, with China the senior partner, Russia the junior, and a hot war in Eastern Europe rather than East Asia (it was Korea’s turn in 1950). I do not know how the crisis will turn out, but I do know it will have profound consequences for the course of the superpower contest.”

And this:

“A tsunami of war has struck Ukraine. Whether the Russian tide flows or ebbs in the coming weeks will do much to determine the course of world history for the rest of our lives.”

Here’s the entire piece.  Lengthy but well worth the read.

The Fates of Ukraine and Putin Turn on 7 Forces of History

. . . Faced by the US, Greater West and Their Allies

EIGHT TOUGH GRAPHICS from Egon Von Greyerz.

WE SHOULD BE THINKING LONG AND HARD.

This is a DISTURBING graphic.  Look at how many of these minerals we are a 100% NET IMPORTER of.

Can we actually afford to go to war with China which refines nearly NINETY PERCENT of all RARE EARTHS?

And without access to many of these minerals, there can be NO GREEN ECONOMY.

People have NO IDEA as to a) HOW INTERCONNECTED VITAL SUPPLY CHAINS ARE and b) to what extent we could be on THE SHORT END OF ABSOLUTE NECESSITIES.

We’d better WAKE UP!