Things not looking good in the UK, especially if energy unaffordability results in PUB CLOSINGS.
There are few DRINKING CULTURES in the world that can match Britain’s.
But then, that’s just me GRENDADE THROWING. Here’s the MEAT of this one.
From ZH:
“The 80% rise in the U.K.’s cap for consumer electricity and natural gas bills this fall will drive millions of households into energy poverty this winter as the worsening cost-of-living crisis stokes fears of recession.”
“Soaring energy inflation has crushed real earnings for Brits, forcing many to pull back on spending.”
“The higher cap rate could push inflation to even more elevated levels as U.K. economists at Citi warned CPI inflation could reach a mindboggling 18.6% print in January due to soaring energy prices.”
“Inflation at decades highs has pushed U.K. Misery Index, an economic indicator to gauge how the average person is doing, to three-decade highs, a sign discontent is emerging.”
The one between hydrocarbons and what we HOPE will turn out to be fuel sources more SUSTAINABLE.
But to be CLEAR, uranium ISN’T IN INFINTIE SUPPLY EITHER. Known usable reserves — AT CURRENT CONSUMPTION RATES — will last another 80 to 90 years.
If we’re CLEVER, though, that should be enough.
As for the US, while its own reserves are only around 1% of total global supply, two of our STAUNCHEST ANGLOSPERE ALLIES — Australia and Canada — hold between them about 37%.
As both countries have RELATIVELY SMALL POPULATIONS and will therefore be facing relatively lower future domestic demand, it’s MORE THAN LIKELY they will become heavy exporters to the US — where demand, no doubt, will be HIGH.
Who thought even a MERE THREE YEARS AGO that we’d hear sentiments such as these from the French President?
Frankly?
I’VE ACTUALLY BEEN WAITING FOR A DECADE AND A HALF FOR SOMEONE IN POWER TO SPEAK TRUTH TO HUMANITY!
Our PROFLIGATE WAY OF LIFE in the face of DEPLETING RESOURCES has been THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM SINCE 1987, 2000 or 2008, depending on where you were at those times.
MAP OF THE DAY: Day-ahead electricity prices in Europe are eye-watering, with lots of countries setting record highs for today. Notable to see the Nordics close to €400 per MWh, and Germany at €600. Before 2020, anything above €75-100 was considered expensive| #EnergyCrisispic.twitter.com/RyTrbJ4Mxl
TUDOR PLACE: Because as Gail Tverberg sees it, the probem — ONE OF PHYSICS — is UNFIXABLE.
Here’s the outline of her argument, and I’m quoting it verbatim, other when other than when I indicate a specific TUDOR PLACE segment:
1] Citizens around the world can sense that something is very wrong. It looks like the economy may be headed for a serious recession in the near term.
[2] Politicians will avoid talking about possible future economic problems related to inadequate energy supply.
[3] What is wrong is a physics problem. The operation of our economy requires energy of the correct type and the right quantity.
[4] Many people have been confused by common misunderstandings regarding how an economy really works.
[a] Standard economics models foster the belief that the economy can continue to grow without a corresponding increase in energy supply.
[b] People seem to understand that legislation capping apartment rents will stop the building of new apartments, but they do not make the same connection with steps taken to hold down fossil fuel prices.
[c] Published information suggests that there is a huge amount of fossil fuels remaining to be extracted, given today’s level of technology. If we assume that technology will get better and better, it is easy to believe that any fossil fuel limit is hundreds of years in the future.
d] How “demand” works is poorly understood. Very often, researchers and the general public assume that demand for energy products will automatically remain high.
[e] It is not true that energy types can easily be substituted for one another.
[f] There is a great deal of confusion about expected oil and other energy prices, as an economy reaches energy limits.
[5] The International Energy Agency and politicians around the world have recommended a transition to the use of wind and solar to try to prevent climate change for quite a few years. This approach seemed to have the approval of both those concerned about too much burning of fossil fuels causing climate change and those concerned about too little fossil fuel energy causing economic collapse.
A rough estimate of what the decline in energy supply might look like under the rapid shift to renewables proposed by politicians:
[6] We are living in a truly unusual time, with a major energy problem being hidden from view.
Most high-level politicians are aware of the energy supply issue, but they cannot possibly talk about it. Instead, they choose to talk about what would happen if the economy were allowed to speed ahead without limits, and how bad the consequences of that might be.
TUDOR PLACE: ANY DIMINUTION IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY THAT FORCES ECONOMIC CONTRACTION WILL NOT ONLY REDUCE LIVING STANDARDS BUT WILL ALSO PREVENT THE PAYMENT OF INTEREST ON DEBT WHICH WILL IN TURN CRATER THE FINANICAL SYSTEM.
YOU CAN PRINT CURRENCY IN AN ATTEMPT TO “CREATE MORE MONEY,” BUT YOU CAN’T CONJURE UP ENERGY BY PRINTING OR BY ANY OTHER MEANS. ENERGY ALLOWS FOR THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF WORK WE NEED TO KEEP OUR HYPER-COMPLEX ECONOMY RUNNING AT SATISFACTORY LEVELS.
IF THERE’S EVEN A MODERATE BREAKDOWN IN ECONOMIC OUTPUT, ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOOSE.
AND HERE IN HER MONEY-SHOT CONCLUDING PARAGRAPH, WHICH, THIS TIME, I’M PUTTING IN ACTUAL QUOTES, TVERBERG ALLUDES TO WHAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS WE NEAR — BARRING THE EMERGENCE OF SOME NEW SOURCE THAT IS AT ONCE SUFFICIENTLY CHEAP, DENSE, ABUNDANT AND SCALABLE — THE INEVITABLE ENERGYSHORTAGE INFLECTION POINT:
“Militaries around the world are no doubt well aware of the fact that there will not be enough energy supplies to go around. This means that the world will be in a contest for who gets how much. In a war-like setting, we should not be surprised if communications are carefully controlled. The views we can expect to hear loudly and repeatedly are the ones governments and influential individuals want ordinary citizens to hear.” (My emphases)
In the meantime, Asia, including Fukushima-damaged Japan, is MOVING AHEAD WITH NUCLEAR.
For instance, as reported by ZH:
“Japan’s energy policy is coming out of a decade of paralysis. The prime minister announced the restart of some [nuclear power] plants to ensure grid stability earlier this year.
. . . . and here’s where the ears of uranium bulls perk up:
‘Nuclear power and renewables are essential to proceed with a green transformation,” Kishida said. “Russia’s invasion changed the global energy situation.'”
Frankly, I don’t think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “changed” the global energy situation so much as COMPLETELY DESTABILIZED IT.
Still, nuclear would have been required under ANY SCENARIO. Green can’t do it alone. Not now and PERHAPS MAYBE NEVER.
Regardless — and as I’ve already indicated — countries in Asia are EMBRACING nuclear.
Tudor Place 