China vs. the US

Study the graphic found in the link below with this quote from the Global European Anticipation Bulletin in mind:

“China is proposing a smooth transition to other parts of the world thus invited to follow the same strategy (‘development at all costs’). But by investing in the infrastructure for modern development in Africa and Asia, China happens to step on the toes of Western power, increasing systemic tension;

“Meanwhile, America is hesitating between three strategies: re-route its import flows (Obama), rebuild its self-sufficiency (Trump), block the emergence of China (Biden). In this waltz of hesitation, it is losing precious time.”

China vs. Unite States: A Tale of Two Economies

For us, not a winning picture.

Energy Nuts & Bolts

A grownup’s view.

Energy: Future Challenges and Uncertainties

The piece is slightly dated, but its timing on a short-term basis is hardly of the essence.

Here’s the guts of it:

“2021-2025: a hole into which whole sections of the planet will fall 

This synthetic vision of the future paths currently being explored – and of the shadows in the picture – reveals a period of at least 5 years during which the energy crisis cannot be resolved other than by huge shocks of reduction of economic activity in certain regions – which the pandemic or other catastrophes will induce. The reason we say “at least” 5 years is that these shocks to economies will prevent them from investing in their transition, thus prolonging the period.

“This 5-year period we have identified runs through many of our research projects:

. central bank digital currencies: horizon 2025

. significant growth in iron ore deposits (see our article on Simandou below): 2026

. answers from ITER on the feasibility of energy production by fusion: 2025

. reinventing the mechanisms of modern and democratic governance: 2024-2025[2]

. significant level of 5G connections (3.5 billion): 2025

. bringing thorium power plants into production: 2025

. corporate restructuring/digitalisation: 2025 (best case)

“The terrible crises being provoked by the absence of these infrastructures and technologies necessary for the indispensable systemic transition will lead our team to anticipate that this 5-year gap could in fact turn into a 20-year period that historians will aggregate to the last decade, i.e. 30 years of Very Great Global Systemic Crisis…”

As I’ve been arguing the past fifteen years, THIS ENERGY TRANSITION FROM HYDROCARBONS WILL BE NEITHER SEAMLESS NOR SMOOTH.  And in emerging economies, it could be disastrous to the point of LETHAL.

Leftist High School Teacher . . .

. . . Gives Extra Credit for Showing Up at Protests

This is the CRAZY LEFT IN ACTION. And it’s also AOC world.

PURE INDOCTRINATION.

Listen for yourself.

Would you want this guy teaching your high school age kids?

There are Marjorie Taylor Greene’s on BOTH SIDES.

And, no, I didn’t vote for Trump. I’m an EQUAL OPPORTUNITY PARAPHRASER.

Taiwan in Peril

If China decides to attack, what will the US, Japan, South Korea or any Southeast Asian country do?  Risk WWIII?  Highly unlikely.  So, can Taiwan defend itself?  Again, highly unlikely.

The lesson of Afghanistan — one would think — is that the US no longer gets to dictate the outcome of these situations.  We don’t and CAN’T run the world. 

Let’s not risk some STALINGRAD MOMENT, and hand the ball over to China.

Some Taiwan data:

Recently, “Taiwan’s Defence Ministry explained . . . that china can launch ‘soft and hard electronic attacks.‘ This means China can unleash electronic warfare weapons to degrade communications across the island and communications from Japan and the Philippines. 

“On top of this, Beijing ‘can combine with its internet army to launch wired and wireless attacks against the global internet, which would initially paralyze our air defenses, command of the sea and counter-attack system abilities, presenting a huge threat to us.’ 

“With the probabilities increasing, China could attempt to seize Taiwan by force amid America’s disorganized exit from Afghanistan, which has tarnished U.S. prestige. Allies of the West, such as Japan and Taiwan, held talks about increasing aggression in the Taiwan Strait.” 

Invasion Map

Attack Stages

Believe me, there is NO WILL on the part of Americans to go to war with China over Taiwan. And certainly not after this Afghanistan shitstorm. And that’s a pity because Taiwan is about as American as Honolulu and an example of what a creative Sino-American business culture can accomplish.

And I’ve been to Taipei. It’s as impressive in its way as was Hong Kong. My fear is that it will suffer the same fate. But to go to war over?

Not happening.

Aluminum Prices Hit 10-Year High

Here’s the skinny:

“Aluminum prices have been supported by production curbs in Chinese smelting regions often aimed at easing the strain on the power grid. The latest price surge comes as the government in China’s Guangxi region, an aluminum and alumina production hub, on Monday called for tougher controls on energy consumption in a statement issued after a teleconference. The region is China’s third-biggest producer of alumina, a primary product of aluminum, with output of 925,500 tonnes in July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.”

And here’s the graphic:

Nice to see even China trying to restrict carbon emissions.

Poems Honed at Midnight

Aqua

Despite these bands of
Heavy rain,
I feel the earth
Still thirsting.

JAD, 2021
That Was Quick

Summer sidled up, serene,
Saluted, settled back.
We hoped it just might dawdle.
But June's doubloon,
Its fabled moon --
At first, just waxing slowly --
Rounded out at once.
Summer sighed, sped off.

JAD, 2021
REM XXXVI: Kursk

From too much shrimp
And gazpacho
To moments of
Shortening breath,
Grenadier volleys
Of vengeance unleashed
Are ripping through
Forests of sleep.
Panzers attacking,
Retreating in turn,
Keep flattening 
Bright fields of wheat.
The Russians are coming,
Their T-34's.
Zhukov is looming,
Heartburn in check.

Pockets of partisans
Rush to each flag.
Resistance encounters
Its double.
Someone intones that
It's all against all.
The circular fusillades
Start.
Blood-swollen shallows
With bottoms tarred black,
Are leeching epiphanies
Lost.
Manstein is keen to renew
The offensive.
Hitler, less certain,
Retreats.

JAD, 2021
Forward

Light engenders hope again
And with it, time expands.
The past, a tender relic,
Ushers us ahead.

JAD, 2021
Single

In a free and fertile time,
I moved with poise and swagger.
Failure didn't matter much.
I always goosed the score.
Streets I stalked with hunger then,
I pass in wonder now.

Suited, shaved and splashed with scent,
I'd edge through smoky crowds,
Each possessed with fevered needs
I never once addressed.
Women, mostly willing,
Rolled my loaded dice.

JAD, 2021
Waning

As summer now cooling,
Is starting to pale,
As breezes downriver
Sail up,
Night, falling faster,
Appeases these streets
Depleted by salvos
Of heat.

Many are sensing
The scale of this shift,
But few have the will
To confront it.
Best not to rally
Or waver or bitch
Or question a
Quieting death.

We're neither the world
Nor beyond it;
Nor spirits of cycles
Consumed;
Nor mystical bodies;
Nor gods beyond time.
We're pulsing but passing -- 
Mere parts.

JAD, 2021